NBA Betting History Reveals Surprising Patterns in Winnings and Losses
I still remember the first time I placed a bet on an NBA game back in 2015 - the Warriors against the Cavaliers. Like most beginners, I thought I had it all figured out. The Warriors were clearly the better team, right? Well, we all know how that season ended. What I didn't realize then was that I was about to embark on a journey that would reveal some of the most fascinating patterns in sports betting history, patterns that would completely change how I approach NBA wagers today.
Looking through the data from For The Alliance's extensive archives, one pattern immediately jumps out - underdogs covering the spread in playoff games has been surprisingly consistent. Between 2010 and 2020, underdogs covered in approximately 58% of playoff games when the spread was 5 points or higher. I learned this the hard way during the 2019 playoffs when Toronto, despite being underdogs in multiple series, kept defying expectations all the way to their championship win. The conventional wisdom says favorites dominate in playoffs, but the numbers tell a different story. There's something about the desperation and intensity of underdog teams when everything's on the line that the oddsmakers often underestimate.
Another pattern that caught my attention - and honestly saved me from some bad bets - involves back-to-back games. Teams playing the second night of back-to-backs have covered the spread only about 46% of the time over the past decade. I remember tracking this specifically during the 2021 condensed season. There was this particular week where the Celtics were playing their fourth game in six nights against a well-rested Bulls team. Despite Boston being 6-point favorites, they looked exhausted and ended up losing by 12. The fatigue factor is real, and it's something I always check now before placing any bets.
What really surprised me though was discovering how consistently certain teams perform against the spread in specific situations. The San Antonio Spurs under Gregg Popovich, for instance, have historically been money when playing on extended rest. From 2014 through 2022, they covered nearly 62% of games when they had three or more days off between matches. Meanwhile, some teams consistently struggle in certain scenarios - the pre-2021 Timberwolves were practically automatic losses when playing on the road against Western Conference opponents, covering just 41% of those games from 2016-2020.
The most counterintuitive pattern I've found involves high-scoring games. You'd think that when two offensive powerhouses meet, the over would hit more often. But the data shows that when the total is set unusually high - say 230 points or more - the under actually hits about 54% of the time. I witnessed this firsthand during that insane Rockets-Wizards game in 2019 where the total was set at 235.5 points. Everyone was expecting a shootout, but both teams started cold and the game finished at 228 total points. The public tends to overestimate how these offensive showcases will actually play out.
Home court advantage, while still significant, isn't what it used to be. Before 2015, home teams covered about 53% of the time. Since then, that number has dropped to around 49%. I attribute this to the modern NBA's style of play - with more three-point shooting and faster pace, the game has become somewhat neutralized. The 2020 bubble season really drove this home for me, watching teams compete without any home crowd advantage yet producing results that weren't drastically different from regular seasons.
One of my personal favorite discoveries involves revenge games. Teams playing against opponents who defeated them in their previous meeting cover about 55% of the time. The emotional factor here is real - I've seen mediocre teams play with incredible intensity when seeking payback. The 2022 Knicks were a perfect example, going 8-3 against the spread in revenge games despite having a losing record overall that season.
The moneyline upsets follow their own fascinating rhythm too. Underdogs winning outright happens more often than casual bettors expect - about 32% of the time in regular season games since 2018. I'll never forget that night in December 2021 when the Pistons, sitting at the bottom of the standings, beat the Heat as 13-point underdogs. The payout was massive, and it taught me that sometimes, taking a chance on a huge underdog isn't as crazy as it seems.
What all these patterns have taught me is that successful NBA betting isn't about chasing favorites or following gut feelings. It's about understanding these historical tendencies and recognizing when they're likely to repeat. The numbers from For The Alliance's database don't guarantee wins - nothing in betting does - but they provide a framework that's far more reliable than just guessing. These days, I spend more time analyzing these patterns than watching highlight reels, and my success rate has improved dramatically. The history is there in the data, waiting to reveal its secrets to anyone willing to look closely enough.